Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue
Ph.D. candidate
Supervisor: Vincent Poirier
Start: 2023-05-01

Project

Modelling the impacts of climate change on agroecosystems in a humid continental climate
Climate change represents a major challenge for agriculture, requiring in-depth analysis of its impacts on climate indicators, soils and plants. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) climate scenarios offer a framework for anticipating these future changes. However, current agroclimatic zonings in Quebec, often based on administrative or geographical boundaries, do not sufficiently reflect climate dynamics and their impacts on agricultural systems. Furthermore, the sensitivity of soil organic matter (OM) fractions to carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) in the face of climate change remains poorly understood, as does the evolution of plant functional traits, such as leaf area index (LAI) and net primary productivity (NPP), under the effect of climate change. This thesis proposes an integrated approach to fill these gaps. Firstly, it aims to characterize the peripheral (e.g. Abitibi-Témiscamingue) and central (e.g. Montreal, Centre-du-Québec) regions of Quebec using climate indicators and the Climate Decomposition Index, based on Ouranos and Agrométéo data. Secondly, it will analyze the evolution of C and N in OM fractions as a function of SSP scenarios, using machine learning models applied to a dataset of 793 soil samples collected by IRDA. Thirdly, it will assess the impact of climate change on LAI and PPN of corn, soybean and wheat crops, using remote sensing products (satellite images) and predictive models such as Random Forest and Support Vector Regression. By contrasting the agricultural potential of peripheral regions with that of central regions, this research will help reorient carbon sequestration management strategies and optimize crop selection. It will also provide a critical understanding of the stability of OM fractions and plant responses to climate change, offering a scientific basis for resilient and sustainable agriculture in Quebec.