théophile kabasele walelu
Project
Expansion of northern marginal populations of temperate forest species under climate changeOngoing and future climate warming is likely to shift species' climatic niches, which could result in the migration of many temperate species to the boreal forest. Northern temperate species populations, or marginal populations, have the potential to play a central role in future migrations. Small and dispersed, these populations could act as sources of propagules and facilitate the northward migration of species. However, even if climatic conditions become favorable for their survival, many biotic and abiotic factors could hinder, slow or accelerate the migration of these populations. The main objective of my PhD project is to understand the dynamics of marginal populations of northern temperate species and to assess their potential for expansion in the context of climate change. First, I will analyze the factors governing the distribution of marginal populations of several temperate species using inventory data from permanent plots in Quebec. Secondly, I will evaluate the effect of forest harvesting on the recruitment of a temperate species of interest, red maple, which could benefit from openings in the canopy at its northern limit by conducting field surveys. Finally, I will model the future dynamics of marginal red maple populations under climate change.
