McGill University
Ph.D. candidate
Supervisor: Brian Leung
Patrick James, University of Toronto
Start: 2021-01-03
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Project

Modelling spruce budworm outbreaks: From local population dynamics to landscape-level spread
Spatially synchronous outbreaks of insects such as the spruce budworm (SBW) can significantly damage boreal and mixed-wood forests in North-America. In terms of spatial scale, periodic outbreaks of SBW can cover more area than fire and logging combined also resulting in huge economical losses. A SBW outbreak is currently ongoing in Québec and although this species and its dynamic have been extensively studied for the last century, numerous questions remain unanswered. My research aims to better understand the spatial and temporal outbreak dynamics of SBW. The goal is to develop spatial models using demographic, environmental, and phenological data to investigate how environmental context and dispersal drive the spatial spread of a SBW outbreak in Québec and ultimately in other affected provinces. This project will contribute to a better understanding of complex population processes that lead to outbreaks of forest insect pests, and it will specifically improve the capacity to mitigate and forecast negative consequences of SBW outbreaks in North American forests.

Keywords

population ecology, outbreak dynamics, Choristoneura fumiferana, state-space model

Publications

1- Five organizing themes for invasive forest insect and disease management in Canada and the United States
Hudgins, Emma J., Brian Leung, Chris J.K. MacQuarrie, Deborah G. McCullough, Abraham Francis, Gary M. Lovett, Qinfeng Guo, Kevin M. Potter, Catherine I. Cullingham, Frank H. Koch, Jordanna N. Bergman, Allison D. Binley, Courtney Robichaud, Morgane Henry, Yuyan Chen, Joseph R. Bennett
2024 Forest Ecology and Management

2- Unveiling the hidden economic toll of biological invasions in the European Union
Henry, Morgane, Brian Leung, Ross N. Cuthbert, Thomas W. Bodey, Danish A. Ahmed, Elena Angulo, Paride Balzani, Elizabeta Briski, Franck Courchamp, Philip E. Hulme, Antonín Kouba, Melina Kourantidou, Chunlong Liu, Rafael L. Macêdo, Francisco J. Oficialdegui, David Renault, Ismael Soto, Ali Serhan Tarkan, Anna J. Turbelin, Corey J. A. Bradshaw, Phillip J. Haubrock
2023 Environmental Sciences Europe

3- Connecting the dots: elucidating the relationship between spruce budworm population dynamics and defoliation
Henry, Morgane, Patrick M. A. James, Daniel D. Kneeshaw, Brian Leung
2026 Canadian Journal of Forest Research