Clara Casabona i Amat
ProjectExtinctions and colonizations as a driver of changes in biodiversity
The aim of this thesis is to develop a quantitative approach to better understand and predict the spatiotemporal dynamics of biodiversity, through the study of extinctions and colonization. I’ll introduce and revisit the concept of extinction and colonization of species, including an extensive analysis of the actual methods used to predict the date of extinction, using simulated data. A spatiotemporal analysis will be incorporated to study distribution-area contractions before extinction and to open the possibility of finding if there are covariables that could explain the extinction of the species. I’ll recreate a new colonization algorithm inspired by the space colonization algorithm (Runions et al., 2007) and using a revers extinction function to study the different patterns of colonization. I’ll use the extinction and colonization models to study the biodiversity change in Québec using data from the ATLAS and incorporating habitat and climate variables as an intend to explain what is causing the changes. Finally, in the last chapter I’ll project the colonization and extinction models to predict changes in biodiversity in the future.