Université de Montréal
M.Sc. candidate
Supervisor: Liliana Perez
Roberto Molowny-Horas, CREAF, ES
Start: 2015-01-07
End: 2018-08-28

Project

Spatial Modeling of Changes in Open Wetlands using Cellular Automata: A Case Study of the Abitibi-Témiscamingue Administrative Region, Quebec, Canada
Wetlands are among the most productive ecosystems that exist throughout the planet. Thirty five per cent of the world’s wetlands can be found in Canada, with an approximately eighty five percent located in the boreal forest However, these ecosystems are among the most threatened ecosystems due human disturbances. Regrettably, once a wetland has been disturbed it is difficult to restore it to its natural state. The study of the complexities around dynamic changes in wetlands can be approached by the use of modeling and spatiotemporal simulations as tools for assisting environmental conservation. Complex systems modeling approaches such as cellular automata coupled with statistical models allow us to simplify these complexities and understanding emerging patterns of complex systems, such as wetlands. This study proposes the simulation of open wetlands based on a hybrid model by logistic regression, Markov chain and cellular automata, in order to project future scenarios of open wetlands distribution in the administrative region of Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Quebec. Model simulation results showed an average increment, by decade, of over five percent between simulations from 2015 to 2055. The results agreed with the observed spatiotemporal patterns from Landsat imagery from 1985, 1995, and 2005. The observed and projected spatial distribution of open wetlands in the study region offer some insight of the dynamics of this fragile ecosystem. With an increase in open wetlands, habitat availability for waterfowl will as well augment, in addition to the services associated with them. The outcomes of this research bring new information and perspectives in terms of future open wetlands conservation policies.

Keywords

Modélisation spatiale, Milieux humides ouverts, Modélisation de systèmes complexes

Publications

1- Hybrid spatiotemporal simulation of future changes in open wetlands: A study of the Abitibi-Témiscamingue region, Québec, Canada
Tiné, Mariana, Liliana Perez, Roberto Molowny-Horas, Marcel Darveau
2019 International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation

2- Modelagem das mudanças espaço-temporais de áreas úmidas: estudo de caso da Região Administrativa de Abitibi-Témiscamingue – Québec, Canadá
Molowny-Horas, Roberto, Liliana Perez, Mariana De Oliveira Tiné
2020 Revista Cartográfica

3- FUNDAMENTOS TEÓRICOS DE MODELAGEM EM SISTEMAS COMPLEXOS
Tiné, Mariana, Liliana Perez, Roberto Molowny-Horas
2019 Revista Contexto Geográfico