JAMEL RIAHI

Université de Montréal
Ph.D. candidate

Supervisor: Liliana Perez
Start: 2020-09-01

Project

Proposal for an agent-based modeling to represent the dynamics of the emerald ash borer outbreak in Montreal.
General context: The emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis), an invasive beetle that is extremely destructive, has already caused the death of large numbers of ash trees in the United States and Canada. This insect poses a significant economic and environmental threat to urban and forest regions. Scientific approaches linked to complexity, in particular the agent-based modeling approach, offer many perspectives for both fundamental research and territorial foresight. Indeed, agent-based modeling is an approach that, coupled with geographic information science (ScIG) can be used to reproduce spatiotemporal models in complex ecological processes such as insect infestation. Objective: My objective is to build a model capable of capturing the complex behavior of the emerald ash borer and the spatial extent and severity of the infestation. More specifically, the development and implementation of an approach to integrating the ABM approach with other theories such as network theory or the cellular automata model while me based on geographic information science (GIS), to represent the complex spatiotemporal ecological system of the emerald ash borer. Relevance: The development of these integrated models is of great utility, insofar as they would make it possible to assess the impacts of the different management strategies of our urban forests, of a possible disturbance of the urban forest ecosystem or of the various climate change scenarios, on the emerald ash borer infestation. We could thus use statistical analyzes to compare the results of the different management modes and scenarios to guide the decision-making process towards the most effective management practices to be put in place.