Working Group 22
Using Species’ Thermal Physiological Limits To Predict Future Biodiversity Changes
The rate and magnitude at which global change is occurring poses a serious threat to species persistence. However, climate driven extinctions could disproportionately affect some clades (i.e. families, genera), and given that many functional traits are similarly phylogenically structured this could result in the disproportionate loss of some ecosystem functions and services. However, species (and potential functional groups) possess different levels of phenotypic variation, phenotypic plasticity and potential for adaptation, which will likely mediate their responses to climate change. Using these elements should sensibly improve our ability to predict which clades and functional groups are going to be more sensitive to climate-driven extinctions.
As a consequence the aim of this working group is to be able to integrate methods currently used to estimate phenotypic plasticity and variation of species’ traits to methods that are currently used to predict species sensitivity to extinction under climate change, and identify and a more refine manner which taxonomic and functional groups will be able to survive under global climate change scenarios. Finally, as many of the taxa in the dataset we propose to use are commercially important in the Québec region (including trout, salmon, waterfowl, oak, maple and pines), whilst this working group will be primarily focus on the sensitivity to extinction across the tree of life (i.e. Biodiversity), will also be able to identify the sensitivity to extinction for important social and economic resources including game, fish stocks and timber that are likely to requiring priority management and monitoring to maintain in the future.
The intended workshop is career level, gender and discipline balanced. The workshop will result in (1) the expansion of an existing thermal limits dataset (GlobTherm) with the addition of phenotypic plasticity and phenotypic variation information, as well as information on functional groups, (2) the integration of methods currently used to estimate phenotypic plasticity and variation of species’ traits to methods that are currently used to predict species sensitivity to extinction under climate change, and (3) the preparation to 1-2 manuscripts (lead by the postdocs and the graduate students) for submission in Nature Ecology and Evolution and Nature Climate Change.
(Université du Québec à Rimouski), Dominique Gravel
(Université de Sherbrooke),
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